What does 2025 look like for wind manufacturers?
While the Windeurope 2025 trade fair is being held in Copenhagen, it is a good time to take a look at the current situation and the near future of the main wind power manufacturers. It has to be said that the trade war unleashed from the USA could change the plans of these companies quite a bit and hinder the path to profitability that almost all of them have started during the past year.
2024 at a glance: good news overall
Let’s start the review by looking ahead to 2024.
As we explained in the already famous 2024 financial results summary post, Vestas and Nordex end 2024 on a high note, with profitability and revenue growth. Goldwind also had a good 2024 but worse than previous years and for the first time in a long time is not the most profitable OEM. GE Vernova improves a lot thanks to its onshore business but continues to be weighed down by the offshore business, while SiemensGamesa is the furthest from profitability.
As for the global ranking of installations, both BNEF and Woodmac agree in giving the top 1 to Goldwind with approximately 20 GW and also agree in placing 4 Chinese OEMs among the top 5. Although this usually generates a lot of headlines, it is still the consequence of having a captive local market such as the Chinese one, which accounts for 50% of the world installation. If we also add the MWs installed abroad by Chinese manufacturers, the market shares skyrocket. For those who want to know more about the sales figures of Chinese OEMs outside their country, I recommend the Windletter article on the subject.
Financial performance
An analysis of the quarterly evolution of the main financial aggregates reveals some interesting trends
- Revenues
The first thing that seemed to be the seasonality, with a peak at the end of the year and the first quarter “hangover”. The second thing is the big difference between Vestas and the others. If in installed capacity we saw that Goldwind is the undisputed king, in revenues it is Vestas. The explanation is very simple: Goldwind‘s price per MW is less than half that of Vestas, partly because of the low prices in China and partly because of the lower scope of its contracts. Finally, GE’s recovery after many quarters of low revenues is noteworthy.
- Profitability
This graph is the graphic history of the last few years of the wind sector. Millionaire losses of the main western OEMs while Goldwind published high returns. And finally in 2024 we see Vestas, Nordex and GE manage to get out of the red while Goldwind sees its record profitability at the beginning of 2024 eroded during the year.
- Order entry
This chart is like a preview of what the revenues will be in the coming months. And what we see is that Vestas and Nordex are going to continue with high revenues while GE reduces its figure a lot, possibly due to its offshore stoppage.
What does 2025 look like?
If we look at the companies’ own forecasts, we see that Vestas and Nordex are confident that they will continue on the good path of 2024, with growth in both revenues and profitability. GE and SiemensGamesa reduce their revenues by being more selective in the signing of contracts and slightly improve their profitability figures, although still far from black numbers
As stated at the beginning, all these forecasts may become obsolete if the trade war provoked by Trump’s tariffs deepens and this causes a period of recession in the economy. We will see how the year progresses but in the face of a complicated situation such as tariffs, let’s hope that the wind supply chain proves that all the vicissitudes suffered in recent years have served to make it more resilient.
